Hello. I am K.

In this report, we'll review the results of my EURUSD practice trading on 2023/1/27. The outcome was a loss. The profit/loss is displayed in USD.

The image is from Forex Tester 6.

Analysis

Daily chart

The daily chart is in an uptrend. However, it appears to be narrowing its update range, establishing new highs, and looking to carve out a higher low. There is still some distance to the daily 20MA, so I considered quickly selling into an initial pullback, with the final target being up to the daily MA.

4 hour chart

The 4-hour chart has failed to make new highs and has broken below the 20MA, with the price capped by the 20MA. From a broader perspective, it appears to be forming a double top pattern. If I can time the sell entry well, a break of the neckline could allow it to extend lower.

Now, let's take a look at the 1-hour chart.

1 hour chart

The 1-hour chart has entered a downtrend, but it is making higher lows and lower highs, forming an indecisive pattern. However, the recent price action appears to be shaping a double top formation. If it breaks below the neckline of this pattern, that could trigger a sell signal that I could potentially ride lower.

The previous high has been tested at multiple points, forming a key resistance line. If the price breaks below this level, the 1-hour MA and 4-hour MA appear poised to transition from converging to diverging, which could signal further downside potential.

Based on the above analysis, Granville's Law suggests that the downside has the advantage and the price is likely to decline further.

So, I've placed a sell order at a level that breaks below the neckline. My stop loss is set just above the previous high.

After placing the order

The sell order has been placed. After that...

The stop loss was hit

The price initially dipped lower, but quickly reversed and then went on to make a higher low. In the end, it hit the stop loss level. This was a trade that went against the higher time frame trend, and I ended up holding the position for too long. If I had seen the initial dip lower, I could have done a partial exit, and also moved the stop loss lower to avoid a larger loss.

This ended up being a trade full of regrets. I should have managed it better when the price action started to turn against me.

 

[Study] → [Understand] → [Be able to implement] → [Explain].
I am currently OUTPUTTING [Explain].
Explaining the rationale for trading to you all is a good way for me to learn.
I may have missed some parts, but thank you very much for reading to the end.