Hello. I am K.

Today, we'll analyze my EURUSD practice trading results from 2023/2/8. The results are shown below. This time it resulted in a stop loss. Profits/losses are displayed in USD.

The image is from Forex Tester 6.

Analysis

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, I see that price has broken below the previous low after an uptrend, suggesting a shift to a downtrend. There is a significant deviation from the weekly MA (red line), so I considered taking a short position targeting a move that could fill the gap (shown in white box) down to this MA level.

Although we're at a point that could be the first retracement after entering a downtrend, the pullback appears somewhat weak. When drawing a horizontal line where the upward movement stopped, we can see a clear resistance-support flip. Therefore, expecting continued downward movement, I'll look to enter a short position if the lower timeframes show favorable patterns.

4 Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart is in a downtrend. We're at a point where we might see downward momentum resume after a temporary retracement. Looking at the retracement highs, the second peak shows a slightly lower high than the previous one.

From the perspective of Granville's Law, this could be identified as a potential third wave, and the 4-hour MA (light blue) is acting as overhead resistance.

Now, let's look at the 1-hour chart.

1 Hour Chart

The 1-hour chart temporarily switched to an uptrend from its downtrend. However, it quickly failed to make new highs and fell back to near the previous low. From a broader perspective, this can be identified as a double top pattern.

Drawing a horizontal line at the current consolidation high reveals this was also a resistance line in the past. If price extends lower from here, the converging 1-hour MA (light blue) and 4-hour MA (red) will likely begin to diverge.

Therefore, I placed a sell order at the point where price breaks below the recent low, which would confirm the shift to a downtrend. I plan to take partial profits at the previous low, and then aim to let profits run with the remaining position.

After Order Entry

The sell order has been placed. After that...

Loss cut

This time, I was loss cut. No matter how much technical analysis I perform, I can't win every time. Looking back a bit, I noticed that the daily level retracement was shallow, and I think I could have been a bit more cautious.

So, that concludes the results of this practice.

 

[Study] → [Understand] → [Be able to implement] → [Explain].
I am currently OUTPUTTING [Explain].
Explaining the rationale for trading to you all is a good way for me to learn.
I may have missed some parts, but thank you very much for reading to the end.